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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It often acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or just the most shocking shock.

However the current competition is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions declining and recent also-rans improving in unison. In an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing five other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. But Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still