🔗 Share this article

For a brief period, Donald Trump gave the impression to take a firm approach on the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering warnings of "severe consequences" last August should Vladimir Putin persisted blocking truce discussions, Trump finally imposed considerable restrictions on the Russian biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move significantly affected the Russian leader's capability to finance his war effort in Ukraine.

Yet, through his latest 28-point peace initiative for the conflict, that was created by US and Russian diplomats lacking Ukraine's or EU participation, the former president has seemingly reverted to his pro-Putin approach.

Rewarding Military Action

The former president's plan would in practice favor the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while putting Ukraine's democracy in peril. Despite ringing proclamations that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be upheld", large portions of the plan in reality compromise that very autonomy. Seen as a Moscow's wish would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his corporate experience, the former president seems to treat the situation in Ukraine as a mere land disagreement, like ceding Putin a portion of Ukraine's land will please the president. But, Putin's military campaign is not simply about controlling a charred region of economically weakened land in the Donbas region. It is about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's apparent goal to weaken it so it no longer functions as an enticing standard for the Russian citizens of the accountable government that his growing dictatorship denies them.

Border Concessions

While freezing in place the presently divided regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's plan would compel the nation to surrender the whole Donetsk province. Beyond benefiting the Russian Federation with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to seize in more than a ten years of warfare, this concession would leave Ukraine's defensive positions critically weakened.

The area is the place of Ukraine's well-known "fortress belt", the fortified defensive positions that represent a key obstacle to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these positions, leaving Putin a unobstructed way to the capital in case he later opt to restart the hostilities.

Defense Restrictions

Then, in a step that would make additional hostilities simpler for the Russian military, Trump would force the nation to reduce the numbers of its troops from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a cap of 600,000. Notably, Trump's initiative places no equivalent restrictions on the invading army.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Russia's campaign to characterize the nation's chosen by the people administration as extremists, the proposal states: "Every extremist belief system and actions must be rejected and prohibited." Apparently to emphasize this point, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal sets no obligation that Putin jeopardize his authoritarian rule by conducting votes in Russia.

Protection Assurances

Admittedly, the initiative makes Russia commit not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "establish in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". Yet considering that the Russian leadership has violated comparable treaties in the past – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government committed to recognize Ukraine's borders in return for giving up its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia agreed to a halt in fighting and a return of captured land in the Donbas to the government – why should we have confidence in this commitment this time?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so determined on western protection assurances. While the proposal promises a "decisive joint military response" in case the Russian Federation resume its military campaign, and states that "The nation will receive dependable security guarantees", the details vary from vague to alarming. The initiative would not only block the nation alliance membership but also preclude Nato members from positioning forces on Ukraine's soil, thereby precluding the security presence, reportedly headed by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to stop Russia from restoring his diminished military, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

World Concern

An additional parallel deal reportedly would grant Ukraine with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any later "major, planned, and continuous armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an assault threatening the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." That suggests a armed reaction. Yet different from a powerful national defense – the nation's primary defense against additional Russian aggression – the success of the side agreement would rely on the willingness of Nato leaders, like the US administration, to respond through arms to Putin's aggression, a response they have {not