‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: War on Iran Tightens India's LPG Supplies.
The ripple effects of a war being fought nearly a significant distance away are now reaching India's kitchens.
As military actions on Iran hinder energy deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz, stocks of cooking gas are dwindling across India, pushing restaurants to cut menus, reduce operating times and in some cases cease operations entirely.
Social media is filled with video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as anxieties over fuel supplies spread. Commercial LPG users appear the most affected: the biggest crunch is in food service establishments.
"The state of affairs is alarming. Cooking gas simply is unavailable," says a spokesperson of the an industry group.
Most food outlets run either on industrial fuel canisters or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the scarcities are now being felt across the country. "Many restaurants have shut down - some in the capital, many in the southern region. People are adopting coal and wood and electronic appliances to keep their operations going."
City-Specific Fallout
In a western metro, media reports say up to a 20% of eateries are already fully or partly shut as commercial LPG supplies dry up. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some eateries say their gas stocks have shrunk with minimal reserves. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no food items - it is truly dismal. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.
Restaurant operators are seeking alternatives. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are opening only for dinner and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are fluctuating as supplies wax and wane. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a dynamic scenario."
Retailers report a increase in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are facing stockouts.
Authority's View
Yet, the government maintains there is adequate supply.
India has more than 300 million household consumers and authorities say stocks are being redirected to households as tensions from the war in the Gulf impact energy markets.
Roughly six out of ten of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about the vast majority of those shipments pass through the key maritime route, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now significantly disrupted by the conflict.
The oil ministry says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for home needs, raising domestic production by about 25%. Non-domestic supply is being allocated for critical services such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".
"A degree of anxious stocking and accumulation has been caused by misinformation. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about two-and-a-half days," says a ministry representative.
Widening Concern
Now the worry is spreading beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a gas outlet. "Anxiety is palpable," the caption reads.
According to data from market experts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be premature.
India imports 90% of its crude oil. Around 50% of its crude oil imports - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Middle Eastern nations.
Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the shortfall could be partly offset by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.
Based on vessel tracking and expert analysis, additional Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.
LPG: The Real Vulnerability
The real vulnerability is kitchen fuel, commentators observe.
India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - most of it through Hormuz.
Refineries can tweak operations to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only increase domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.
In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be somewhat alleviated through diversification. Refined product supply remains fairly adequate. Kitchen fuel stocks is the critical issue to track in the coming weeks."
What may be heightening the anxiety on the ground is not just scarcity but patchy deliveries - and the common threat of panic buying.
An industry representative claims price gouging.
"Suppliers are exploiting the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold to the highest bidder."
For now, India's petroleum stocks may be buffered by worldwide shipping. But in kitchens across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next cylinder.
