Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
